Day Trading Course, Will the S&P Continue to Fall? is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

Day Trading Course, Will the S&P continue to fall?

After a couple weeks of losing ground the S&P 500 traded to touch to the support at the 1320.00 area. From a purely technical stand piont this does seem to be an area that could begin the reversal for a retracement on the daily chart, however the end of the bears run here is unlikely.   Long term support shows the likely downside target in the 1300 – 1303 area as a more likely longer term low side target.

Day Trading Course teaches key area’s in the markets to learn to take a profit

As far as retracement targets for upside over the next few days, price could test to the 1334 area first with the 1350 area as the next likely stop from there.  After that it will be the watch for the next move down to show us where the market is on taking this further or beginning a move back up.  See you at the starting line!

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Calgary Day trading course will be this coming weekend. The Bulls have temporarily pulled away and are heading to the safety zone.

Price action on the S&P500 emini futures as support held and the buyers moved in.

Calgary Day trading course focusing on the S&P500 emini futures support and resistance.

Calgary Day trading course looks at price and direction, the support and resistance and the direction of the market.

Calgary day trading course sees price support coming in at 1391 and the point of control for the move up at 1393.75.  The first target of 1410 – 12.50 was achieved and we are looking for a pull back to 1402.75 fir a continuation to spot #3 at 1415.25-18.50  Expect some resistance to step in here as some profit taking could occur.

Big money is still on the side, although the initial move up from 1391 had many institutional buys with algorithmic buys at intervals supporting direction.

If price fails to stay above 1400 then watch fora sell back in to the congestion zone of 1380 to 1391 again.  Further support at 1372 and then 1352.25 for the sellers to take long term control of the markets again.  Expect some distribution at the major resistance as institutional buyers are jittery.  First they don’t want to miss the move  and secondly, they don’t want to get caught in a sell off.

Watch for a break of the support and resistance set out on the chart, price failure in these areas could see some consolidation for a further continuation in either direction.  If there is commitment in the move then we could see the levels broken.

Calgary Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education.

The S&P500 emini futures is one of the largest professionally day traded markets in the world. Our Calgary Day trading course focuses on training you on how to see price and direction in the marketplace and how to leverage your strengths to take a profit out of the market.

Disclaimer: day trading is high risk, do your own work : The efficacy of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. Be responsible for your trades, do your own work and never rely on others. When searching for a Calgary Day trading course, be sure you understand the risks involved in trading.

Day Trading Course, Weekly Review is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

Day Trading Course weekly review, Day Trading Course teaches Key factors in being successful in the markets.

Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education in Calgary Alberta on May 5-7.  Contact us for more details and to register.

The S&P500 emini futures is one of the largest professionally day traded markets in the world. Our Day trading course focuses on training you on how to see price and direction in the marketplace and how to leverage your strengths to take a profit out of the market.

Disclaimer: day trading is high risk, do your own work : The efficacy of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. Be responsible for your trades, do your own work and never rely on others. When searching for a Day trading course, be sure you understand the risks involved in trading.

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Day Trading Course, S&P 500 Tests week old target of 1355 – what now? is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

As mentioned in previous posts over the last week or two, the S&P took to the sellers side where price moved and tested down to the supporting trend line of the bullish channel. (see updated chart) From here price could see some retracement into the 1370.00 area before deciding on direction once again.  Weekly chart has this area as a longer term support area and sellers will have to commit to move it any further.  Other option is that this bullish channel stays intact and the buyers step back into this and return prices to the highs from which we have just come.  1370.00, 1386.00, and 1400.00 will be the upside levels to watch for in the next few trading days, while the sellers if they can muster up the volume will likely want to take another run at the bottom of this move before allowing it to turn, new lows could see price move to test as low as 1330. However, the question will be if they can commit to new lows?  or just give make it a speed bump in the buyers road ahead?

I’ll see you at the starting line!

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Day Trading Course, S&P tests key support on Holiday Trading Close is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

As posted on Thursday, the S&P tested key support in the 1372-1375 area Friday morning as news again disappointed.  However with the low volume, the market is likely to recover some of the sell off before continuing to the downside.  The 1375 area is where the bears will have to come with commitment to take it farther down in next weeks trading.  Watch the volume.  Here is the updated chart from my previous post outlining the the low side support targets from Thursday morning’s post.   See previous post for more on what to expect in the coming week of trading.

See you at the starting line!

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Day Trading Course, Is the bulls party over for good? is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

With the S&P trading lower through the over night and moving to open around the 1387 – 89 area this morning, som may start to wonder if this is the end of the party for the bulls?  The end of the QE3 dollars, and an overbought condition signal on every indicator known in trading from volume and correlative markets to Bollinger bands and oscillators.   So will this market just turn and dump?

Before we get too worried about the next big short, let not forget about some simple but effective area’s of support and resistance.  These area’s will be key in watching for the next move and if we play them right, we can take a profit no matter which way they go.  The first area of support to watch will the the 1385.00 area.  This is where the bears decide if they have the commitment to take us out of this week long channel and go for new lows.  Next is the 1375.00 area, the bottom of the bullish channel on the chart.  Here we will see if it is time to move out of the long term bullish run we have been in.  I wouldn’t expect a move straight through this area, unless there is BIG volume to push through.  Most likely price will see a retracement back from this level before continuing further.  Longer term target going into next week will be the 1355 area of support.  A test here will likely if the move continues through 1375 after a small retracement.

Should the bulls come back into this fighting, we could see price move to take a test back up into the 1390, and 1402 levels.  However at this point new highs are unlikely as long as the news continues to disappoint and their volume remains low.

I’ll see you at the starting line!

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Day Trading Course, S&P 500 moving into resistance with investor confidence at long time lows is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

The S&P 500 has just kept on moving, occasionally taking nothing more than a quick glance into the rear view mirror.  This market has surpassed most people’s (including my own) expectations for this multi-month rally.  But just because the market continues to slowly creep onwards into the sky, doesn’t necessarily mean that the bear isn’t poised behind the curtain waiting to come out for his turn on stage. (see below)

Some degree of profit taking in a market such as the one we have seen recently is inevitable.  The question will really be to what extent it occurs?  Previously,  the last time the VIX reached the current lows it is seeing now we have witnessed sell offs ranging from the 20-30% area in the Dow Jones and S&P 500. While history does not necessarily repeat itself, often similar circumstances and situations do produce similar results.  A key factor in the recent markets has been the underlying secretive QE3 and Euro zone swaps that have provided markets with billions of new dollars being injected recently into the markets, driving stock and other equity prices up while no real new value is being created as with most real bull markets.  In fact, sentiment right now is a more conservative approach with a higher aversion to risk due to large and quick market swings.  Seems light volume is showing that most investors are not buying into the current state of higher prices and doctored earnings. 

With pressure now on Gold, Silver and the Eur, the S&P could see a continue to float a bit higher on to 1407, 1421 or even 1445, but without the new highs coming early into the week prices could return to test the previous area’s of support in the 1370, 1350, and 1334 area’s. 

Trade what you see, I’ll see you at the starting line!

Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education in Calgary Alberta on May 5-7.  Contact us for more details and to register.

The S&P500 emini futures is one of the largest professionally day traded markets in the world. Our Day trading course focuses on training you on how to see price and direction in the marketplace and how to leverage your strengths to take a profit out of the market.

Disclaimer: day trading is high risk, do your own work : The efficacy of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. Be responsible for your trades, do your own work and never rely on others. When searching for a Day trading course, be sure you understand the risks involved in trading.

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Day Trading Course, Dollar, Yen, Aud, Gold, Week in Review is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

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Day Trading Course, Despite recent gains, S&P still stuck in bear market? is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

Day Trading Course teaches support and resistance necessary to navigate the markets.

This is an article I read this weekend that I enjoyed, and though you might too.  It is exactly what I am seeing so I have not changed it at all.  Enjoy….

Any talk about a continuous bear market is about as popular as hemorrhoids. In fact, suggesting the presence of a bear market seems almost as socially unacceptable as talking about hemorrhoids.

But just because it’s hidden behind a veil of silence doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. In fact, the less Wall Street talks about a bear market, the more likely there are to be falling prices. Just think of April 2011 (shortly before the summer meltdown) or April 2010 (shortly before the ‘Flash Crash’).

Unfortunately, sentiment is no longer fail proof (we’ll discuss why in a moment). The absence of any fear in December 2010 for example had no immediate consequences.

Fortunately, there are other measures and indicators to gauge whether this is a new bull market or a giant bear market rally. Here are some:

Before we talk about alternate measures of strength and weakness, supply and demand, it’s important to establish that price is the only measure that counts. But because price is often deceptive it tricks investors to move in precisely the wrong direction at the worst of time. The more you know, the more likely you are to call a ‘price bluff.’

Day Trading Course teaches volume and how to read it to see the direction of the markets.

Trading Volume

Trading volume measures the enthusiasm of buyers and sellers and is a totally independent variable from price.

The first chart below illustrates NYSE trading volume. The gray bars reflect daily volume. I’ve added a 50-day SMA to smooth out the daily peaks and valleys and allow for an easier volume trend analysis. The 50-day SMA shows that volume peaked in August 2007 and has since declined.

Obviously, the larger-degree trend for volume has been down. Particularly noteworthy is the drop in trading volume since the March 2009 low (black box). Various stock indexes like the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI – News), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC – News), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC – News), and Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT) are up more than 100% since March 2009. Trading volume, however, is down in excess of 40% over the same period of time. What does that mean?

In his book Technical Analysis Explained, Martin J. Pring explains the significance of this: ‘Rising prices and falling volume are abnormal and indicate a weak and suspect rally. This type of activity is also associated with a primary bear market environment.’

Ouch, the long-term picture doesn’t look good. What if we zoom in to the short to mid-term time frame? The second chart plots the S&P 500 (weekly bars) against a 5-day SMA of trading volume. We see that since the 2007 market top, stocks have rallied on extremely low volume (red arrows). Periods of declines, on the other hand, were accompanied by massive trading activity. Technical analysis 101 says that’s bearish.

Volume Abnormalities Explained

Lowry’s has been monitoring buying and selling pressure for over 70 years and notes that contracting supply rather than expanding demand fueled the rally from the October low. The absence of demand rarely bodes well from prices (that universal law applies to baseball cards on eBay as well as German luxury cars and yes, stocks).

Demand would be dismal (and prices much lower) if the government (domestically and abroad) didn’t artificially prop up prices. QE2 in 2010/11 in the U.S. and about 1 trillion euro worth of long-term refinancing operations by the European Central Bank, have force-fed money into the market. Low trading volume is a dream for central bankers, as a little bit of artificial demand in a small market creates a bigger

splash than in a highly traded market.

Practical Value of Volume, Breadth and Momentum Data

Volume, breadth, and momentum indicators help evaluate price action. Think of them as an x-ray image that reveals developments hidden from the naked eye.

Slowing momentum or weakening breadth, are often precursors of a market top. If you like charting stuff, take a moment to chart the percentage of stocks above their 10, 20 or 50-day SMA and you’ll see that more stocks are falling below short-term SMA’s, even as the prices of broad indexes move up.

Fewer stocks above their SMA, means that rising prices are driven by a small number of stocks (can you say Apple?). A tell tale sign of a weakening up trend. The McClellan Oscillator uses a formula to calculate moving averages of advancing, verses declining issues.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum of stocks. The RSI provides some valuable clues, especially since we are in a liquidity-driven momentum market.

In August 2011, we predicted new lows based on a typical divergence between price and RSI seen at major market bottoms.

This expected RSI divergence was one of the reasons the September 23, 2011 we expected that: ‘A bottom at 1,088 should spur a multi-month rally’ and explained that: ‘From its May high at 1,370 to its eventual low, the S&P will likely have lost about 300 points (22%). This kind of move validates a counter trend rally. The plan is to square short positions and buy long positions around 1,088. The rally, once underway, will probably re-inspire a certain degree of confidence into the market before it runs out of steam.’

Divergences Raise Red Flags

We currently see bearish divergences between the McClellan Oscillator and prices, and RSI and prices. While the S&P has recorded new highs, the McClellan Oscillator and RSI have not.

This doesn’t mean that prices can’t go any higher, but it cautions that either a push to the next resistance or a drop below important support could result in a sizeable correction. Some say corrections are healthy, but I say that corrections in such an overextended market can easily turn into some sort of meltdown. So, there’s no reason to hold stocks for better or for worse.

If resistance is reached or support is broken, it’s prudent to scale down long positions and perhaps add short positions.

In summary, technical indicators (and support/resistance levels confirm this view) point towards a rally that’s running out of steam. Long-term indicators (one of which is trading volume) suggest we are still within a bear market.

The only silver lining is provided by central banks force feeding banks and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF – News), and a spike in seasonal strength.

Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education in Calgary Alberta on Feb 25-27.  Contact us for more details and to register.

The S&P500 emini futures is one of the largest professionally day traded markets in the world. Our Day trading course focuses on training you on how to see price and direction in the marketplace and how to leverage your strengths to take a profit out of the market.

Disclaimer: day trading is high risk, do your own work : The efficacy of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. Be responsible for your trades, do your own work and never rely on others. When searching for a Day trading course, be sure you understand the risks involved in trading.

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Day Trading Course: Market Stays the Course is a post from: S&P 500 Day trading course S&P 500 learn how to day trade in live day trading room.

Day Trading Course, S&P 500

Day trading course focusing on the S&P500 emini futures support and resistance.

Day trading course looks at price and direction, the support and resistance and the direction of the market.

Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education.

The S&P e-minis futures stayed the course this past week, as price continued upward on low volume.

While the arrow on the volume chart shows how volume has gone down since the high in August, 2011, it may have more to do with the meaning of the increased volume earlier than the meaning of the current decreased volume. Historically, volume tends to reach a low for the year in February and September. So this month shouldn’t seem surprising to anyone, and we can look for increased volume as we move into March.

With two dojis sandwiching the week on the 1440 min. chart, it is unclear which way price will go next.

We are in a high zone yet the current pattern is to slowly plod upwards. The weekly range is slightly decreased from previous weeks. The S&P e-minis futures market seems to be tentatively yet clearly moving ahead. I think this a market that strong economic or world news will affect. Buyers have control, but it is tentative. Buyers and sellers alike are watching the market, with only a few making it move.

If buyers continue in control, we could expect resistance around 1371 then 1400. It would take a lot to test the highs of 2007, but it’s not out of the question. If sellers take control, look for resistance around 1360, 1356, and 1350, with major support around 1340.

Day trading course will be in your area soon, join us for Day trading education.

The S&P500 emini futures is one of the largest professionally day traded markets in the world. Our Day trading course focuses on training you on how to see price and direction in the marketplace and how to leverage your strengths to take a profit out of the market.
Disclaimer: day trading is high risk, do your own work : The efficacy of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. Be responsible for your trades, do your own work and never rely on others. When searching for a Day trading course, be sure you understand the risks involved in trading.

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